•    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth to slow from an estimated 6.从21年到3年的1%.22年是6%. 这是0.8%age point lower for ’22 than projected in January. 
•    The World Trade Organization (WTO) expects merchandise trade to grow 3.0 percent this year, down from its previous forecast of 4.7%.
•    The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and De-velop¬ment (OECD) predicts inflation, 今年年初就已经上升了, 可以是2.5 percentage points higher, on average, across the globe.
•    The World Bank (WB) warns that food and energy price shocks from the Ukraine war could last for years.

全球经济增长放缓将影响休斯顿的经济. 但这会导致当地经济衰退吗? 合伙人不这么认为. The reasons why will be outlined at the organization’s Global Houston luncheon, a comprehensive look at the region’s ties to the global economy. 事件, 将于星期五举行, 5月20日, 在欧姆尼酒店, 将由菲利普·卡尔森-斯列扎克出演, 波士顿咨询公司首席经济学家. He will deliver the keynote address on the global outlook. 帕特里克养家糊口, 合作研究高级副总裁, 将讨论全球趋势将如何影响休斯顿. All attendees will receive a copy of Global Houston 2022, the Partnership’s analysis of international activity in the region as well as profiles of Houston’s top trading partners. 要注册该活动，请访问合作伙伴网站 网站.
 

正一步步接近全面复苏

As of March ’22, Houston had recouped 331,400 jobs or 92.2 percent of the 359,400 jobs lost in the early stages of the pandemic. Only 28,000 jobs are needed to return to pre-COVID employment levels.  休斯顿应该很快就能达到这个里程碑. 该地区通常创建8个,000 - 12,000 jobs in April (the April employment report will be released 5月20日) and 12,000 - 16,5月份美国新增就业人数为1000人(5月份就业报告将于6月17日发布)。.

如果TWC修改3月份的初步估计, Houston may return to pre-COVID employment even sooner. 这一修正可能伴随着4月份的就业报告而来. TWC报告3月份仅增加了1,700个工作岗位. Typically, the region adds 10,000 to 20,000 jobs in the month.  其他指标——人口增长, 出口, 房屋建筑, 营业税征收, the Houston Purchasing Managers Index—indicate the region is currently enjoying robust economic growth which suggests stronger job growth.

对就业报告的修订是很常见的. TWC每月的估算是基于对雇主的调查. 像所有的调查一样, TWC的调查存在抽样误差, 不完全反应, 迟答复和其他问题. The commission tries to account for these discrepancies in the initial estimates, and issues revised estimates as additional survey data becomes available.

修正可以是双向的，向下或向上. 这可以从22年2月的就业数据中看出. Originally, TWC reported the region created 45,000 jobs. The revised report indicated 32,000 were created in February. 零售业创造了3,500 fewer jobs than first thought; the government sector, 3,少000; administrative support, 2,700 fewer; restaurants and bars, 1,800 fewer; professional, 科学, 技术服务, 1,100 fewer; and transportation, 1,少000. 其中一个行业出现了大幅向上修正, 建筑增加了1,比最初报道的增加了300个工作岗位.

Unlike employment data, local labor force data is seldom subject to revisions. 数据显示，休斯顿的失业率从5%下降.从2月份的3%降至4%.3月份为4%. 失业率高达14%.在大流行的早期是0%. 这些费率未按季节调整. 

在更积极的方面, 休斯顿的平民劳动力, 包括季节调整和未调整, 现在超过了大流行前的水平. 

薪酬成本上升

Compensation costs for private-sector workers in metro Houston rose 4.5 percent in the 12 months ending March ’22, according to the U.S. 劳工统计局(BLS). 这是近年来增幅最大的一次. 一年前，薪酬成本仅增长了1%.1%. Compensation includes wages, salaries, health insurance and other benefits. Separately, wages and salaries, the largest component of compensation, rose 5.2%，略高于4%的全国平均水平.8%.

买房更难

住房 affordability in Houston has declined significantly over the past two years, according to a study recently released by the Houston Association of Realtors (HAR). Only 47% of households in metro Houston earned the minimum annual income ($73,400) required to purchase the median-priced Houston home ($330,22年第一季度为800美元. 这比2011年第一季度的58%有所下降. 休斯顿并非特例.

All the state’s major metro areas saw similar declines over the past year. 奥斯汀地铁跌幅最大.

这不是最近才出现的现象. The Texas metros that HAR studied have seen steady declines in affordability over the past 10 years. 在Q1/12, 70 percent of Houston households qualified for the median-priced home, 而今天这一比例为47%. 在奥斯丁, 这一比例从64%降至34%, 达拉斯则是72%对47%, 和圣安东尼奥, 66%对34%.

首页 prices and interest rates are rising faster than wages, so even fewer families may be able to afford to purchase a home in the future. Prices are expected to appreciate at a double-digit rate this year. And as of mid-五月, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 5.3%， 1.比HAR的研究高出5个百分点. Rates will likely rise another one to two percentage points by the end of this year.

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Note: The geographic area referred to in this publication as “Houston,” "Houston Area” and “Metro Houston” is the nine-county Census designated metropolitan statistical area of Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX. 这九个县是:奥斯汀, Brazoria, 钱伯斯, 本德堡, 加尔维斯顿, 哈里斯, 自由, 蒙哥马利和沃勒.